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"Navigating the Complex Landscape of the September Jobs Report"

"Navigating the Complex Landscape of the September Jobs Report"

October 06, 2023

As we dissect the latest employment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it's evident that the economic picture remains dynamic, with both encouraging and concerning aspects. The report for September 2023 paints a mixed portrait of the U.S. job market, highlighting several noteworthy trends and challenges.

First, let's acknowledge the positive side. The headline number is undoubtedly encouraging, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 336,000 jobs. This number surpasses the average monthly gain over the past year, indicating some momentum in job creation. The report also highlights significant gains in various sectors, notably leisure and hospitality, government, health care, professional services, and social assistance.

Leisure and hospitality, in particular, saw robust growth, adding 96,000 jobs in September. This industry's resurgence is heartening, especially given its importance for low-wage workers who were disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Food services and drinking places, in particular, returned to pre-pandemic employment levels, signaling a significant step toward recovery.

Government employment also surged, with substantial gains in state government education and local government, excluding education. This is a welcome sign, considering the vital role of public-sector jobs in the economy.

Health care, another critical sector, added 41,000 jobs, albeit slightly below the 12-month average. The growth in ambulatory health care services, hospitals, and nursing facilities is crucial for addressing the ongoing healthcare needs of the population.

Furthermore, it's heartening to see wage growth, with average hourly earnings on private nonfarm payrolls increasing by 0.2 percent in September and a 4.2 percent rise over the past year. This is good news for American workers who have long awaited stronger income growth.

However, the report also underscores some persistent challenges. The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.8 percent, but beneath that headline figure, disparities persist. While many demographic groups showed little to no change in their unemployment rates, teenagers continue to face a substantially higher rate at 11.6 percent. Additionally, the number of long-term unemployed individuals remains significant, representing 19.1 percent of all unemployed persons.

The report also points to the stubborn issue of underemployment, with approximately 4.1 million individuals employed part-time for economic reasons. These workers desire full-time employment but are forced into part-time roles due to reduced hours or the inability to secure full-time positions.

Perhaps one of the most poignant aspects of the report is the fact that around 5.5 million people who are not in the labor force still want a job. This includes 1.5 million marginally attached to the labor force and 367,000 discouraged workers. This highlights the need for comprehensive strategies to reengage these potential workers and provide opportunities for them.

In conclusion, the September jobs report presents a nuanced economic landscape.  While the headline numbers show progress, disparities and challenges persist. The bond market has been correct in expecting yields to rise across the fixed income space, while the 10-year yield is likely to surpass 5%.The economy is a complex entity, and these monthly reports provide only snapshots of a dynamic situation. Policymakers and stakeholders must take a holistic view, addressing both the positive trends and the areas where intervention is needed to ensure a more equitable and robust job market for all Americans.


Disclosure: 9i Capital Group LLC is a registered investment adviser.  Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies.  Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.  Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.